Im not satisfied with the above analasys as it relies too much on guessing through visuals rather than giving accurate iron ore price data . As well as this the quoted 2021 dividend price is a couple of cents off. As a result i've decided to give a more accurate post as to what the dividend payment may be for this years Interim dividend. First lets look at the average prices of Iron Ore leading into last years payment - which was as follows
| December 31, 2020 | 155.43 |
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| 1 | November 30, 2020 | 124.36 |
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| 2 | October 31, 2020 | 119.78 |
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| 3 | September 30, 2020 | 123.75 |
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| 4 | August 31, 2020 | 121.07 |
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| 5 | July 31, 2020 | 108.52 |
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Which works out at a average of 125.48 for the 6 months prior to the dividend payment
This time around we are working with the following prices
| Date | Value |
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| 1 | December 31, 2021 | 116.96 |
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| 2 | November 30, 2021 | 96.24 |
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| 3 | October 31, 2021 | 122.91 |
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| 4 | September 30, 2021 | 124.52 |
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| 5 | August 31, 2021 | 162.16 |
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| 6 | July 31, 2021 | 214.14 |
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The average price of Iron ore leading up to this years dividend is 139.48 therefore exactly 14$ more than what we were looking at 12 months back or a 11.21 % increase (close but not the 15% originally guesstimated). I believe that this will not result to a direct 11.21% increase in dividend payment as we must consider that theirs been increased production costs however this is slightly offset due to increased shipments of iron ore being 45.6 (mt) which equates to a 3% greater output as compared to the first quarter of financial year 21. In this point in time this is the only comparable production data we have as the 2nd quarter production reports will be released Tuesday therefore i'm going to assume that the trend continued and that FMG increased production by 3% over the half year.
In theory a 3% increase of production added to a 11.21% increase in price paid should gives us a increased profit of around 14.5 % however as stated earlier production costs have increased and we must consider a greater grade discount therefore i'm going to guesstimate that for this half yearly we will only see a 10% increase in profits instead of 14.5.
Last years dividend payment was $1.47 a additional 10% will see us at around about $1.62 therefore not too far off the first estimate after all.
Any feedback especially feedback stating any possible errors is welcomed as i'm always happy to learn from those more knowledgeable than me and just to state the bleeding obvious don't take the above prediction as fact - always scrutinize internet posts and use your own brain to dissect the information presented.
(20min delay)