What are people's thoughts on these cashflow figures?
Key asssumptions, worst case scenario:
- 6.0% margin after FY2022 - historically 7.0%
- 2.8% lost / bad debts - most recent FY2022Q2 update had 2.8% - historically closer to 2%)
- 5.0% interest rate on borrowings (that is 2.2% higher interest rates than FY2021, say 9 rate rises this year)
- TTV and Receiveables scale at similar rates in FY2022 and FY2023, then decay as expansion markets mature
- SOI increases on avg 5% a year, adding 160m shares in 4 years, because why not
- No other major acquisitions or structural changes
- Share based employee benefits continue at similar CASH level and increase with headcount, at around $250m/year
- No adjustment for additional revenue streams or new markets such as Zip Business
- Banking fees remain the same
- No major change in admin / depreciation / taxation witchcraft etc
Couple of years of the same, profit in FY2025, then explosive returns with further scaling. Net debt reducing in a few years. Kind of like your spec miner applying for a new mining licence, not so bad.
Now for another scenario: as above but
- 6.9% margin through FY2022 and following, similar to historical averages, and possible with the right customer base, partnerships / market positions
- 2.2% lost / bad debts, closer in line with historical averages
- 4% interest rate on borrowings over next 4 years, still 1.2% above FY2021
In this best case scenario:
- Profitable in FY2024
- In five years, no net debt and ~$60 price target
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- ZIP
- Thoughts on the Five year outlook
Thoughts on the Five year outlook
-
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 47 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add ZIP (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
$2.12 |
Change
-0.040(1.85%) |
Mkt cap ! $2.822B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$2.16 | $2.24 | $2.11 | $35.66M | 16.48M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
10 | 190586 | $2.12 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$2.13 | 20300 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
19 | 422070 | 2.120 |
20 | 407292 | 2.110 |
54 | 491774 | 2.100 |
10 | 435687 | 2.090 |
23 | 431337 | 2.080 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
2.130 | 24918 | 3 |
2.140 | 112064 | 8 |
2.150 | 571864 | 15 |
2.160 | 171735 | 4 |
2.170 | 239726 | 12 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 05/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
ZIP (ASX) Chart |