I am back for 5 mins after doing a bit of analysis... History repeats itself but sometimes in different ways.
@tobylin you mentioned 5000 points on the bright side
This shows your call is possible based upon my thoughts...
@Whalewatcher - others here will read this anyway...
The purple line shows how this market has surged in comparison to the 2008 peak.
The light green line shows the run from 2003 to 2008.
2009 channel trend lines have a narrow centre band. When prices are above the centre band they tend back to the centre but can move straight to the lower band. We haven't had the massive push as happened towards the end of 2008 which broke that upper band but we started way below the channel bands (4400 level) followed by the strong push back to the upper channel band.
W have never had such a strong rise in the index before. This might be the catalyst to move the index back to the bottom trend channel
With this crash, we could see some support on the centre and lower 2009 channel bands with the lower currently around 6200...
A drop below 6200 might see a drop to the lowest covid panic channel band based on the low of 4400, which might see the a retracement to the 80% fib area. There are many other external factors (debt being the main one) to cause such a drop.
There are several trend lines of support before it gets to the marked target zone so those might be short term bounce points. Probably take small profits near those areas. Bounces would be entry points for new shorts. I personally wouldn't trade longs if this starts to really unwind as those positions could be smashed quickly
We have pushed so much harder from 2020, therefore this fall might be stronger and the expected target zone (5000ish) might be smashed through.. The present target zone is around 35% from the top being 7600. This would be my 2-6 week initial target time frame.
A 50% drop from top, brings us back to 3800 where there has been prior support. If it continues lower, maybe we come back to the 2009 low or the start of the 2003 low; 2700 to 3200 area. (about 58% to 65% drops).
To get to 1500, it would take a little longer (2-4 years of slow death pain). This is only 80% too
And just to highlight.. no indicators are needed to analyse stocks.. Sometimes they give incorrect outcomes or EXECTATIONS
(20min delay)