----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last post in a while, I promise -
but i'm going to include all of this, because there's been a lot of confusion, and many here may not have the willingness or patience to go through the PFS, nor comprehend fully what this is all telling us (and I expect to be corrected if anyone finds fault, as i'm def an amateur).
So I'm going to answer my own question re if the $25 premium for Razorback was worked into the PFS - see table above.^
Those three prices correlate to 110c IO price - and the concentrate grade is 67.5%.
Now here's the important piece;
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
They've assumed the premium as the 23% contingency.Saying this more simply, in our PFS they have assigned the premiums for magnetite, on top of the 62% fines price utilised for PFS - as the "contingency". So we shouldn't confuse the two.
Having said this - Look at our latest 65% fines (right column below) -
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So, going by our PFS above, they've used a contingency of 23% ($25) to make up for the difference in additional premiums ($$$) between grades 62%, and 67.5-68.5%.
However, what can we see from the above?
- there is a $30 price difference between 62% and 65%, at our current, latest IO price of $137.10 (62%), on the 21st of January.
- we have already currently out-surpassed our 'premium' contingency by 5 bucks, with our current price, to just 65%
- we still have ~3% in additional premiums to get us to our MGT grade of ~68%.
Could we approximate how much money we might get for the rest?
Note this below, taken from the June 30th announcement (Maiden Ore Reserve update, page 22);
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So before IO went crazy last year, folks were getting (roughly) and additional extra 6 bucks per Fe% - and when the price was crazy high, it was hitting at least 12%.
So - acknowledging ALLLLL the above -
I reckon we could stay conservative - and adding $6 x 3, gives us 18 bucks - call it $20, because of that extra .5% re 68.5% grade.
We are currently cruising at least
$25 above our referenced $/Tonne.
NOT taking into account product quality, and low impurities, and utilising a conservative measure.
And acknowledging the higher grade premiums are expected to rise over time.
So with dirty maths -
3 million tonnes per annum concentrate >>> 3million x $25 = $75mpa/ minus a conservative 45% tax, gives us post-tax @ ~approx $40m additional cash in our pocket. That's a ~20% increase in after tax net cashflow.
Checking out our recent worst months' prices when IO was at $100 or below;
We're still maintaining above contingency, and making an additional unaccounted for profit of AT LEAST $25M or so post-tax in our pocket.
Even that profit at our average net cashflow of $141m @ 110c head grade improvement case, gives us an 18% profit increase over what's quoted in PFS.
Anyway.
We are more than good//
I promise I'm taking a break, now.
