is there a bubble in gold...marc faber, page-41

thanks for the interest Grov - sort of motivates me to do some of the spadework that can really pay dividends as we navigate the GFC

You main theme of geo-political issues was a little prescient I thought with APEC countries calling for a stronger USD and also for a loosening of China's peg - I guess thats a continuation of the story from Europe. Some central banks are supporting the USD as you mentioned and are boosting USD reserves.

Watching the USD strengthen on Thursday and knowing that Obama is in Asia this coming weak possibly talking about the USD

and

keeping in mind ctndales comment that at some point the dollar will stabilise (or gain in value) increasing the real cost of borrowing the dollar, then everything rolls back in the other direction - everyone runs to the exit at the same time

so its "Don't bet against the USD" time again I guess

anyway I'm a hopeless trader and I sold some of the juniors that I play with - I still have a "core" position in PM's and a junior from 2005 - but I still feel that whilst there may be something of a central bank "floor" under the POG now(I'm not sure of the volatility bit with gold repeating) ctindale could well be right in that any market selloff will see a lot of grief as these juniors have an army of "buy and drop" speculators on their registers

I rather like Bill Bonners idea:

Which is something like this -

The US savings rate as %GDP is moving up - it has a long way to go - but it's moving and that in itself allows the world to buy US bonds

It's going to take 20-30 years (Japan) of low interest rates - I'm not that familiar with bonds but a bit of a bounce in bond yields happened in the 1930's, so maybe now is a good time to lock in 6% on a TD just as locking in 8.5% (for 5 yrs) was a good idea in 2007 ?

So Obama (the word is still out that he is pretty sharp) is going to do the Noble thing and say give us time to pay our debts and the world also knows that we have a workable marriage in "ChiMerica" that needs a bit of counselling - which is what APEC and Rudd (bless his little goody twoshoes) is all about

and part of that counselling could be for Merica to loose weight fast if it want's a healthy life and for Chi to stop being such a control freak

The world can live with markets tanking, currencies stabilising, and years and years of deflation (nothing wrong with that!) but they can't live with the anger of a ChiMerica divorce or the profiteering that may go with that.

So I reckon Gold will stay above $1000 USD
you have to manage the "ctndale" risk
and if you have money in the bank there are going to be some better punts coming up
and cash is still King and at 6%+ here - thats not a bad return!

It all sounds a bit pretentious to me this here commentry - there are some good minds here on HC so have a go because I reckon there is precious little information out there anywhere else!