I asked the question at the investor call about the drop is job advertisements in Dec in AU. The Australian picture for jobs is broadly playing out globally. See the following data from Trading Economics (based on ANZ research):
As you can see the jobs picture looked quite weak heading into COVID (150K), then lots of industries had to adapt, lots of migrants left (and don't be fooled, professional services jobs ads are also at extremely high levels), and job ads (which XF1 does feed off) skyrocketed to 225K. With the employment market steadily working its way to normal over CY22 and CY23 I don't see this fiscal and monetary policy-fueled labour market heat as persisting, sucking the primary tailwind from XF1's performance gains. Competitors (also raised on the call) are here as well; pricing pressure.
None of this means XF1 is a bad company (they've done excpetionally well to date), or one that won't experience growth over both FY22 and FY23, but as with all growth companies, it's quantum that makes or breaks it with regard to short term returns.
Even though it's hard to tell what businesses will commit to over FY22 H2, I'm generally expecting XF1's FY22 revenue to be $21.5-23M, NPAT $2-3M, and then FY23 (predictions get even hazier, number of integrations new and existing, competitors) to be $25-28M, NPAT $3-4.5M, and this is a level of growth that I think doesn't warrant the current market cap. It's a very expensive market and rates are about to rise. 'Not Held' because I sold out recently.
As always, GL to all holders and non-holders, just my views, all the best guys.
XF1 Price at posting:
72.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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