At the time of the last upgrade the companies projection for coal price for the new year was substancailly lower. Now the importance of the price staying inflated for a much longer period should be significant for the company as they have said the price they receive is based on a 3 month average. (platts HCC spot price)
This should mean they are in a good position to upgrade earnings on Monday or at latest the 6 monthly report due out in Feb.
Last guidance was based on $268 USD a tonne and 73 kiwi $.
Last 3 month ave is $370 USD and 68 kiwi $
Now more importantly the current price of $435 USD will ensure, even if the price comes down somewhat, that the next 3 month average will still be exceptionally high and the kiwi $ is at 65.
I run a few numbers and put them on $125m EBITDA should the price ave $300 for the year this takes into account hedging position and kiwi $ at 68.
A $350 Ave and 68 kiwi $ ave, which is less than both are now, I put them on EBITDA OF $160M.
BRL have very consistent cost of production so you will see substancailly higher cashflow growth if the price of product remains high.
By FY 2022 they could have 50% of the current company market cap ($133m) in cash.
I am surprised at current market value so change my sentiment from hold to buy as given the fundamentals and assets this should be trading 50% higher.
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Last
75.5¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $144.4M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
76.0¢ | 76.0¢ | 74.8¢ | $23.97K | 31.90K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 4762 | 75.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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76.0¢ | 10000 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 4762 | 0.755 |
1 | 8000 | 0.745 |
1 | 31544 | 0.730 |
1 | 8000 | 0.700 |
2 | 1215 | 0.630 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.760 | 10000 | 1 |
0.780 | 12266 | 1 |
0.785 | 3532 | 1 |
0.790 | 10000 | 1 |
0.800 | 42871 | 2 |
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