At the 5 minute Matt Fernley predicts the NCM307 battery chemistry could be quite important going forward (30% nickel, 70% manganese). The issue noted is sorting out issues with the high purity manganese supply chain. The current market size is noted as 50kt/yr and if all batteries were NCM307 in 2030 (they won't be), the demand HP Mn estimated is 2,000kt/yr. The graph guesses (and it is a guess) that NCM307 formulation will be about 8% of the market by 2030. This would imply a HP manganese market from this battery type of around 160kt/yr. Other chemistries like NCM811 would add to this as.
There is also relevant HP manganese comments from the 19.50min mark through to 21.00, including the recognition only some Mn ore is suitable for as high purity feedstock.
I think, but I'm not sure on this that the MN commentry refers to pure equivents. If E25's planned HP MSM was at 33.3% Mn, 3 tons of this would equate to 1 ton in the video commentary. If the 8-yr growth from 2022 to 2030 is 50kt to 200kt, its a market growing at 19% pa. A key unknown is what dominant battery chemistries will evolve because this will hugely impact the future demand for HP Mn.
E25 Price at posting:
$1.21 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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