I do and I've just had a lengthy conversation with Mark Simpson, the author of the Patersons report and he mentioned another potentially explosive fact-in-progress:
Monaco has applied for a global fishing ban on Atlantic Bluefin and is getting positive feedback. Such a ban would take 70% of TOTAL wild global bluefin out of play!
He said his target price of $1.33 is conservative but wouldn't comment on it's AFR-touted-100-bagger potential.
I'm sure if interested people contacted Mark directly he'd be happy to provide the full report. In the meantime here's the overview:
THE FISH THAT RAWED
Value per share - $1.33
Sustainable tuna returns
Maybe investors should be wary of any analyst overly passionate about fish but we believe that CSS offers access to a break-out industry, namely full-cycle, sustainable ‘premium’ tuna. With Southern Bluefin Tuna (SBT) having sold in the past at ¥3,000+/kg in the critical Japanese market, we see CSS as a high-value, high-margin, high-growth business.
What is a full-cycle industry? CSS has invested over a decade of time and capital learning how to propagate SBT in land-based tanks with the intention to grow them out in off-shore marine cages. CSS intends to spawn a new fingerling batch next month for a first-time transfer to the sea in January, essentially completing its R&D phase.
Why is success for this full-cycle business so important? Global tuna stocks are depleted. Increasingly strict quotas are being imposed and potentially a ban on commercial fishing for the Atlantic Bluefin could be introduced next March. This would also impact the catch-and-ranch industry, leading to a dramatic drop in supplies.
Wouldn’t consumers just go elsewhere? Yes in terms that top-grade sashimi tuna may become prohibitively expensive for some (to the benefit of CSS’s Kingfish product). No in that there is no alternative to the high-fat, marbled Bluefin in the sashimi world.
Funding need to FY15 not a concern. While we expect success in the pending sea-trials (the related Stehr Group has ranched SBT since the 90s), building stock levels is capital-hungry. We believe that a further $110m will be needed to FY14, however, interest cover would be a comfortable 4.5x in that year of peak funding.
Entry level price attractive. The recent surprise $42m funding round (Rabobank/Ridley Feed pulling credit lines) so soon after raising $23m in May has hit the shares hard. However, with clear catalysts pending and given our DCF valuation of $1.33, we see the current share price (and the pending $12m SPP) as attractive entry points. Accordingly we initiate with a BUY recommendation.
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clean seas seafood limited
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Last
13.8¢ |
Change
0.003(1.85%) |
Mkt cap ! $28.81M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
13.5¢ | 13.8¢ | 13.5¢ | $24.88K | 182.3K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
10 | 3246570 | 13.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
14.0¢ | 317638 | 14 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
10 | 3246570 | 0.135 |
2 | 8373 | 0.130 |
3 | 242200 | 0.125 |
1 | 7500 | 0.120 |
1 | 7826 | 0.115 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.140 | 317638 | 14 |
0.145 | 68473 | 1 |
0.150 | 2000 | 1 |
0.155 | 8000 | 1 |
0.170 | 40000 | 1 |
Last trade - 15.52pm 16/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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