NXS next science limited

Ann: Investor Presentation - Q4 FY21, page-3

  1. 3,456 Posts.
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    IMO, the best news in this is confirmation of the Zimmer deal has been completed on a win/win basis. No mention of a license fee for Zimmer .. so looks like that may have been the olive branch to settle. Specialist sales team for USA ortho market is a major plus for NXS ... especially with having the same for plastics via TELA Bio. Hopefully, some similar deals for Europe aren't too far in the distance. The 3M debacle delayed BLASTX sales - but seems the experience has resulted in NXS/Judith being wiser, more confident and harder nosed in their negotiations (so maybe a blessing in disguise?).

    I'll be waiting with bated breath for the annual results presso, particularly on whether surgeon numbers and VAC approvals have accelerated. There's a real chance NXS cash flow running rate could be positive by end CY22. In meantime, some random comments on other items by page number ... Please add/comment/expand. Cheers.

    Presentation 31/1/22
    - P4 revenue growing nicely on time frames presented … BUT ...
    - With large 4Q20 and poor 2Q21, revenue by Qrt of 5 periods is fairly flat
    - 4Q21 may have been boosted by one-off white label TELA Bio license payment?
    1- P5 some loss in sales momentum in 4Q with:
    - significant decline in VAC submissions and approvals (approvals now <20% of submissions)
    - surgeons using didn't increase as much as prior qrt … yet this was anticipated to be exponential growth (Judith previously said they were targetting 400 by 31/12 - yet only achieved 160). With <2 surgeons per hospital currently using, plenty of scope to increase.Current numbers at annual results presso will be interesting for trend.
    - Question: do the XPERIENCE numbers include indirect via TELA Bio?- presume not.
    - P5 Good to conclude Zimmer deal in what appears to be very much win-win.No mention of license fee tho (so perhaps waived as part of complaint settlement?). Presume Zimmer will transition existing Bactisure sales to white label XPERIENCE?
    2- P9 only 3 qrts of cash available at 4Q cash burn rate … but … with 75%+ product margins cash deficits will quickly reduce/reverse with sales.A doubling of revenue should result in positive cash flow - this could be achieved on a running rate basis by end CY22.
    3- P10 - good to hear sales going well so far CY22, should get more info at AR presso.
    4- P10 - hints at reasons why momentum may have slowed in 4Q (disruption in surgeries, staff shortages) .. And of course the restructure. Appears to me Judith is addressing these issues whilst downplaying the 4Q sales momentum that was lost (by showing sales in their best light as per P4).
    Last edited by SimonGr: 31/01/22
 
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