Ann: FY22 Guidance Update, page-64

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tasboy

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01/02/22

11:19

Post #: 59269065
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Originally posted by thecrabpest: ↑

The problem is the full benefit of Tropicana isn't being felt (but is being realised) by the business right now.

Tropicana produced over 33,000 oz at an AISC of about $1000 (or whatever). They are some of the lowest cost Australian produced ounces that I am aware of on the ASX.

I think it would have been an extra $25m in profit for the quarter if it wasn't for the hedges. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the company still made good money on the hedged ounces due the the low AISC of the operation.

As others have mentioned in these threads, the SP would be sub $1 if we were forced to rely just on the production from Duketon.

Everyone wanted (expected) McPs to be in the construction phase by now, but we have no idea of when that would be, and that uncertainty has been a major drag - although costing very little.

If McPs gets approved by the NSW Gov and the board approves development and we start construction in earnest, this company would be producing around 600k oz per year without hedges within 3.5 years and SHOULD be debt free.

Assuming there are no more surprises and the company is able to self fund McPs, is when things get really interesting.

This is known as a dividend play, so let's look at that...

600k oz @ $1000/z margin = $600m (assumes $2500 AUD gold price and $1500 AISC - obviously there is the potential for increases in production, I believe the company is suggesting 700K oz p.a. production)
755m shares on issue (as per the last quarterly)

Which should result in an extremely profitable business.

IF the company paid out $300m in dividends over the course of the year, there would still plenty of money to re-invest into the business.

We would be looking at $0.40cps dividends which relative to todays share price represents a dividend yield of about 23%

I appreciate there is a lot that needs to go right between now and then, but it is a compelling prospect.

The 3.5 year timeline sucks though, and there may be better opportunities short term, but at least the medium term story is compelling despite the current pain.

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I sometimes wonder what the rush is to ramp up gold production into a blatantly suppressed market.

Let's face it, gold in the ground is safer than any Fort Knox type of storage and is like holding bullion without the storage charges.

RRL Price at posting: $1.77 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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