"but don't fall into the trap of thinking that general negative sentiment is a true reflection of business fundamentals and the opportunity ahead"
Business fundamentals are based on sound accounting and balance sheet analysis. The process of fundamentally based business analysis is one where profitable sectors of a business are identified and expanded on, while unprofitable segments are closed, curtailed or liquidated.
PBH as a whole is highly unprofitable. PBH is purely financed by share issue and the stock itself is marketed for punters, much like the sports betting platform. If you want to talk of fundamentals, you need to reference the financial performance of the company and the return it has provided for shareholders over time. There are no fundamentals here, the company simply hopes it can jack up the SP through clever marketing and issue more shares along the way to keep the money coming in.
"but $1 valuation talk can only be based on an assumption that this stock will not enter any new states"
No, this is based on the fact that ever increasing expansion has only led to ever increasing loss of shareholders equity via dilution while board of directors and managers enjoy exorbitant salaries. Entering new states does not automatically equal more money, these areas have to be profitable, of which none are. There is zero shareholder interest in mind from my observation, it seems as if the entire stock is a grand marketing strategy to coax shareholders out of their hard earned money.
"gambling stocks like BNPL stocks are out of favour right now, and these are the times to thinks seriously about getting in at attractive valuations"
The favor of a gambling stock is based on the amount of money they spend on marketing. PBH spends almost as much as it earns on marketing, you have to keep in mind their target market is low to middle income earners who will sway with the wind of a marketing campaign. Valuations, like fundamentals are based on revenue, earnings, equity, cash flow, margin, ROE, debt/equity, cost of revenue, depreciation/amortization etc.. these are just a few off the top of my head and there are many more.
"there are rare opportunities to invest when the majority of short term investors have turned against it for sentiment more than fundamentals and prospects"
Again, there are no fundamentals to speak of. I seem to think you are basing your fundamental knowledge entirely on the companies marketing campaign, of which, the first few pages of their reports are full of. You have mentioned good fundamentals and valuation in your post numerous times without any reference to the calculations and analysis needed to come to a conclusion of whether or not a company actually has good fundamentals and valuation.
The most recent quarterly shows a $100M cash loss and a $51M loss for the quarter, this is set to top last years $187M loss and you can be sure there will be another capital raise coming to cover those losses.
They also have $80M in debt against the $569M cash on hand. If they fail to secure more cash through capital raising that cash balance will at the current rate disappear as fast as it appeared. The debt will ultimately bankrupt PBH in that case.
"the market will turn again; and when it does, with PBH adding another 10 US markets-ish over the next 12 months it will look very attractive at these prices"
No matter how many markets they open, if they continue to be as unprofitable as the ones they already have it will only accelerate the SP free fall from all the dilution through capital raising. The sad reality is that the market as a whole has been turning green over the last few days while PBH continues its nosedive. There is no value here, only a unified cohort of punters comfortable in the knowledge that they are losing money together.
(20min delay)