Yeah, given there is no downgrade (which is good news), FY21 full year EBITDA will be ~20+% compare to last year which is not bad given the current situation we are in.
TBH, the real game changer for Appen was when Apple released iOS14 privacy updates in September 2020, this basically destroyed the FB's mobile ad business on iOS and Appen's response was inline with what happened in the market, "Yes, our big clients are diversifying away from ads projects due to tightened privacy" thus we had the downgrade. However all the voices we heard at that time were "Looks like they no longer need Appen's service", this was extremely bizarre to me.
There are of course a lot of advancement in SSL which require less data labelling but I do believe the demand for data labelling with scale and high quality still outweighs and all the tech giants are rushing into autonomous vehicles, Metaverse, they would rather spend $$$ on setting a foot in the market first rather than waiting for SSL to reduce the data labelling cost.
I expect FY22 guidance to be at least 15%+ given the transition from service to product and lot of early stage projects Appen are doing wright now. If it's 20-30%, this would send the SP back to $20 in no time.
Appen and the Nasdaq, page-72
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