Can we have a serious discussion about the future of FBR and realistic outcomes for the company as you see it.
I will start in my opinion I don’t see it been listed on the ASX in the next few years.
I feel it will either be taken out for next to nothing to obtain the tech or it will just fail in my opinion.
Why I think that is that it’s been 16 years in the R n D phase over 120 million dollars spent yet we have not seen any tangible path to revenue that would make the company profitable. It’s been given enough time to get tangible pathways a few walls here and there with 2-3 machines will not do that it needs scale big scale
The current cash position and cash burn in my opinion is a real worry given it just had a recent raising. What happens in three months time????
What we know is the machine works but has created very little interest amongst investors as a credible long term hold hence the Very sad performance
A few builders have shown mediocre interest with a few throw a bone builds which have created little media or public attention
Do you see mobs down there at Willagee drooling over it no because it’s just old hat tech now
The sight of robots working in all industries globally are common as dog poo it really is
Went to a robotic restaurant in NYC no staff to be seen walk in sit down order pay food comes out by a little robot to the table no one bats an eyelid
No one gets excited about seeing a robot do anything it’s expected it’s just part of evolution
All manufacturers have embraced robotic technology and have for donkeys years look at car manufacturers
While the auto bricklaying machine looks like it’s great is it really going to change construction of homes that much on a global basis.
No it’s not as alternative construction methods are sweeping the globe and bricks are in my view an archaic way of building homes and are making the process laborious and expensive for home owners
The issue is that unless there were hundreds or thousands of these machines built they will have very little impact globally on residential or commercial construction as it just won’t scale to do that would cost way more than they have
Commercial is dominated by tilt up walls not bricks one drive through any commercial area here or down there will show that
Modular housing is getting more sophisticated as is other methods Europe 3D concrete all the rage
In Australian capital cities what do you see now dominating skylines yep high density residential towers
who wants to live 40-60 minutes or more commute outside a CBD young people don’t with the cost of fuel parking and public transport costs rising it’s a budget killer for young people
Home ownership is now out of reach for 80 per cent of people under 25 rentals are in huge demand fir that reason
In summary the only way this stock will ever advance is by mass production through an equity partner
The problem is if a CAT Komatsu Mitshibishi thought for a nano second the machine had a future they would have snapped it up long ago
What flaws do they see you don’t the future of residential construction is not robotic bricklayers
If it was this stock would not be 3.8 cents it would not be on the current cash position it would be making big profits it’s not
Look simple maths if your burning 25 million a year you need to make 40 million to make enough profit to be tangible and to drive the SP grow EPS ROI ROE NPAT
Constant raisings make that equation on the profit side harder through dilution effects on your holdings
I my view the very most you can hope for is that someone with a niche idea in construction will take it out currently with a 30 per cent say premium your looking at 5 cents likely they wait and pick it up for under three cents once cash becomes an issue
Folks tell me your scenario please keep it real y’all
FBR Price at posting:
3.8¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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