Pretty much the entire rally from $14 to $23 was a PE re-rate, it was not driven by an increase in earnings expectations as the average price assumed by analysts has not changed (materially). As of yesterdays, FMG's blended forward 2 year PE was 14 which is one of the highest multiples FMG has traded at over the last 7 years... and now we have IO prices plunging again.
A forward PE at this elevated level just has no respect for the uncertainties FMG faces, its priced as if it is assumed that 100+ IO prices will remain and cost pressures will remain under control and FFI just works itself out.
To get back to a more normal 2 year blended forward PE of about 11, without an increase to earnings, would require a share price fall of about 20% from recent highs. That is why I believe FMG is overpriced here.
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Last
$21.71 |
Change
-0.190(0.87%) |
Mkt cap ! $66.84B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$21.77 | $21.80 | $21.34 | $408.6M | 18.51M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 289875 | $21.68 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$21.72 | 95078 | 4 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 390 | 21.620 |
1 | 2000 | 21.610 |
2 | 484 | 21.600 |
1 | 250 | 21.570 |
2 | 2232 | 21.530 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
21.730 | 3600 | 1 |
21.740 | 1000 | 1 |
21.750 | 3380 | 3 |
21.780 | 2306 | 2 |
21.800 | 527 | 2 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 21/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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