Pretty much the entire rally from $14 to $23 was a PE re-rate, it was not driven by an increase in earnings expectations as the average price assumed by analysts has not changed (materially). As of yesterdays, FMG's blended forward 2 year PE was 14 which is one of the highest multiples FMG has traded at over the last 7 years... and now we have IO prices plunging again.
A forward PE at this elevated level just has no respect for the uncertainties FMG faces, its priced as if it is assumed that 100+ IO prices will remain and cost pressures will remain under control and FFI just works itself out.
To get back to a more normal 2 year blended forward PE of about 11, without an increase to earnings, would require a share price fall of about 20% from recent highs. That is why I believe FMG is overpriced here.
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Last
$18.33 |
Change
0.360(2.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $56.43B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$18.11 | $18.49 | $18.10 | $176.9M | 9.659M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 78 | $18.31 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$18.35 | 100000 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 78 | 18.310 |
5 | 24198 | 18.300 |
1 | 820 | 18.290 |
1 | 67518 | 18.270 |
9 | 27742 | 18.250 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
18.350 | 100000 | 2 |
18.380 | 2000 | 2 |
18.390 | 11221 | 3 |
18.400 | 4369 | 4 |
18.410 | 10281 | 4 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 22/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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