Thank you @ChocolateTeapot and all that took their time to read and run a ruler against the numbers line by line; I appreciate all (& critical) feedback; it's always great to have a second set of eyes reviewing it - probably the only way I would notice the oversight.
In respond to your queries which hopefully will clear things up a bit.
SC6.0 Scenario:
1. Good pickup and you are correct; the prices was linked to the DSS SC6.0 scenario instead of the SC6.0 prices under the SC6.0 scenario - I've fixed this now - this does indeed impact annualised EPS by -4c and -6c respectively; the Company will still have sufficient after-tax FCF to progress Stage 2.
2. I left SC6.0 Opex the same under the -10% and -20% because I don't believe Opex will (ever) go lower even if there's a reduction in sale price/t as output (mined/saleable materials) remains the same in all scenario.
3. Same reason as point 2 above.
Integrated Project Scenario:
1. The +60% and +90% price increment scenario was in reference to the SC6.0 price only whereas the LHM prices was assumed at 20x of SC6.0 (please note point 3 made in my previous post) in order to not be overly too optimistic about the fetchable price/t of LHM.
2. Same reason as point 2 above under SC6.0 Scenario.
Same as reason provided above.
4. It is paid off; note that SC6.0 (Stage 1) is applicable from Yr 1 to Yr 5/6 as it is part of the Integrated Project Scenario (Stage 2) - you need Stage 1 before Stage 2 can occurred hence the $121m loan is included (not $0; it's just a line above sustaining) in this scenario.
I've probably said this a number of times in my past posts; mentioning both LTR and FMG in Post #55022015 and liken the possible dividends in Post #58265378 - this project should (will) be able to generate massive amount of after-tax FCF; my number forecasting exercise proves this.. provided things go as plan and especially so; given where SC6.0 and LHM prices should be heading even if costs does up a notch - It's still a no brainer.
There may be bumps and hiccups along the way but when does one expect the music to stop? a year later? a decade or even a century later? I wouldn't know the answer to that and all I know if it does "stop" - I'll be on the sideline ready to "steal" some shares from the panicking bunch.
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78.5¢ |
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Mkt cap ! $1.903B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
80.0¢ | 80.5¢ | 78.5¢ | $6.351M | 8.000M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
31 | 391524 | 78.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
78.5¢ | 47493 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
31 | 391524 | 0.780 |
14 | 470852 | 0.775 |
31 | 229387 | 0.770 |
16 | 161244 | 0.765 |
33 | 200704 | 0.760 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.785 | 47493 | 2 |
0.790 | 9891 | 3 |
0.795 | 234359 | 7 |
0.800 | 232735 | 11 |
0.805 | 98693 | 6 |
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