Hi MDH,
Absolutely - the 125sqkm is obviously for 100% efficiency from source to trap. Perhaps we could assume an migration pathway efficiency variable of 20% for source to Saturn trap, thereby increasing the required Kudu Shale rock volume 5 times from 120km2 to 600km2. But as you say, Saturn is a huge container to fill!
My understanding is that the Kudu Shale is regionally ubiquitous so hopefully source volume is not be a problem. I do has concerns about migration shadows and unseen, up-dip turbidite channels that could breech Saturn.....
I think the primary source rock is interpreted to be the Albian-Aptian sequence. See maps below which have blank patches due to limited of data.
Source of maps linked below - you probably already have read this
(PDF) Orange Basin Petroleum Geochemistry and 3D Modeling 2021 (researchgate.net)
Kind regards OldGeo
Sell off, page-53
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