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Ann: Presentation - FY22 half year results, page-10

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  1. 2ic
    5,923 Posts.
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    "relating to a question about bridging the gap cash flow between Kwale wind down and Toliara start up they alluded to other opportunities that were being considered which would bring cash in".. the obvious project that could be permitted and production ready is STA's Tanzanian projects imo. So long as Kwale Dry Plant and infrastructure doesn't have to move then a toll treat of JV could seamlessly transition to new feed from new truckable project location.

    If Kwale plant has to be broken down and shifted (eg Malawi, Moz) how can that possibly bridge the gap? There is considerable time and cost to build and commission a new mine elsewhere, which cannot get hold of Kwale plant equipment until after late 2024 (assuming Dune Nth extensions) which means late 2026 cash flow from new operation earliest... Call me an optimist, but like to think Toliara is also ramping up with free cash flow coming out the wazoo by late 2026!

    If it is only Base's experience and skill set being brought to the table, unfortunately I suspect that is worth little in any M&A. The rationale is sensible and pragmatic but 'show me the money' is the refrain from most M&A targets/partners. At the end of the day any company's 'experience' is simplify a group of individuals who can all be bought for the right price (hint, a lot less than corporate M&A). However, the desire/need to keep the Base development team intact and gainfully employed while waiting on el-presidento's election campaign Toliara approval does make sense. Lose the team before getting approval to develop would make Toliara development that much more difficult and risky form market's perspective.

    Interesting proposition but i still can;t get my head around if Toliara approval is imminent. Especially if the whispers I heard about engaging a commodity consultant to review opportunities is true... if it was all about a STA tie up then why the need to cast a net far and wide? Best outcome by far would be near mine resource addition but the Kenyan government seems to have gone out of their way to make this near impossible, and the community has hardly jumped on board either.
 
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