$3.60 broker 9mth target - trading at 1.04c..., page-8

Hey 64, I had put this comparison up regarding COH and UNI a little while ago, this was just a fwiw post to see what may come to, a few little details have changed.


COH recently had an NPAT of $130.5m
From memory they have only around 56.3m shares on issue
They are currently around $60 - $62 a share.

Now with UNI I have used this previous comment by the CCZ report mentioning:
"Our numbers for UNI are conservative. UNI is indicating potential production volumes of 210m by mid 2012 which would generate net earnings of $50m plus".

Now using these (prefill) and forgetting about the 1ml sales I came up with the below:

Mid 2012 - 210m RTF's = $50,000,000.00 profit
Mid 2013 - 360m RTF's = $85,680,000.00 profit
Mid 2014 - 510m RTF's = $121,380,000.00 profit

So by the look at the above numbers one could hazard a guess that we would be very close to COH earnings by 2014, not to mention the fact that I think we should have at least $20 - $30m profit rolling in for the Clinical Range by then but we will use just $14m to even up the last score, we also still have the Select range to contemplate.

So COH at current have a similar growth profile for the next couple of years that UNI would going beyond 2014, I actually see with recent news that UNI could have a stronger outlook as far as potential profits are concerned considering that the target is near on a billion RTF units beyond 2016 and the Select range will be firing also. UNI have just around 5.5x the amount of shares on issue, so if we worked it out:

COH sp is $62, divide by 5.5 = $11.27 for a UNI equivalent price as at todays pricing (there abouts). These prices also consider that the market would put at least a 25x price on UNI as they have with COH, these reports suggest at least 30x PE ratio due to the growth outlook and what the US markets factor in.

I like to also note that COH were around the $20 (UNI $4?) mark 5 years ago before they started to earn these types of earnings for 09. So one could hazard the guess that blue sky will be taken up quickly for UNI when we are on the NASDAQ and are getting closer to earnngs. I leave these thoughts with all and I know that it is all speculation as UNI have to meet these targets and perform well. Take my workings with a grain of salt, I'm no advisor.