Deciphering Lynas, page-213

I received data for January that I went through last night, and all indicators are pointing up.

First I'll show how we are tracking with the rolling Q revenue (white line, left axis, AUD), rolling Q NdPr price (blue line, right axis, AUD), and monthly average LYC sp (right axis divided by ten, AUD). All January inclusive.


As you can see, sp became unhinged in January (but has since then re-joined the trend).

A few weeks ago I showed that we in December received a huge delivery of concentrate at LAMP- thanks to the first chartered boat load. I'm pleased to say this has continued in January:


(note: no y-axis, use more as a relative guide)

A few posts up this thread I also mentioned I've managed to track ~20% of our NdPr products, and could calculate a rough sale price. Judging by my data, we made a big jump in January (left axis AUD, white line av. selling price, orange line monthly NdPr price shifted two months forward):




All-in-all, I'll now make an early call that we will increase our production this quarter to ~1,500t, and our revenue will be around ~$300m. At 55-60% profit margin, we may very well have a higher profit in this current quarter than we had in the previous HY (i.e. >$157m).

And let me remind everyone, this is still 300t/quarter less than NEXT rate.. and still some distance from current spot prices. Honestly, not a single 'analyst' seem to have a clue as to what is really happening here.