Well coal at $120 avg x 18.5mmt (guidance saleable F22 in latest preso) = $2.2b - $70/mt cost to mine ($1.3b) - Freight, SGA, Royalties ~$500m = $0.4b USD EBITDA or $0.6B AUD EBITDA. Assume ~6x EBITDA = $3.6b / SOI 1.7b ~ $2. Assume no debt (as it's gone now)
If you take however US$250/t as pretty conservative estimate for F22 (given spot is >$400 now and longer months look solid >$300) then
18.5mmt x 250 = $4.6b - $70x 18.5MMT ($1.3b) - Freight, SGA etc ($0.5b) = $2.8b US EBITDA x 6 = $24b / SOI 1.7b = $14 share price (I don't really expect this just illustrative)
Imagine if EU reverts to coal due to Ukraine invasion - will we see $300+ for medium term?
Play with the multiple if you like or the sale price. Either way, some upside left in her no? Pls let me know if I've buggered this up as the family jewels are invested.
CRN was $3/share under much lesser conditions (some dilution since tho beware).
Capex is $90m (US I think) if you want to play with FCF and toggle discount rates.
Lovely chart, page-9
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 21 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Add CRN (ASX) to my watchlist
 (20min delay)
|
|||||
|
Last
$1.10 |
Change
-0.050(4.37%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.835B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $1.11 | $1.12 | $1.09 | $2.583M | 2.350M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | 62851 | $1.09 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $1.10 | 4275 | 1 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 18/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
| CRN (ASX) Chart |