Ann: Alcoa Corp 4th Quarter 2021 Earnings Release, page-23

I am happy for you to show me the errors of my way to save me a buck, but from my experience of Aluminum to Alumina prices, I feel $440 a tonne is a little on the conservative side. I would expect to see Alumina well over $500 a tonne at the current Aluminum prices.
What is holding AWC back is the AWAC agreement with Alcoa, as the the Australian refineries and smelter are being punished by Alcoa's poor decisions around the world.
The financial decisions on Australian assets are being made in Pittsburg US and are not doing us Australian investors any favors with the profits that should be coming our way!