Excellent post as always
MCB is already a holder in GNX... I agree that if he wanted to... he would have already put the offer on GNX
Like most renewable generators coming into the Australian market... they want AGL's customer base (4.5m customers) ... current takeover of AGL is an opportunity to avoid having to pay additional multiples for the clean side once it is separated from the dirty
Would also explain why todays revised offer there included a exclusivity clause and legals re-imbursement offer... if they accept the offer to put to shareholders... IMO Shell, Iberdola, Telstra and others will come out of the woodwork for a bidding war... as it stands - this may not happen until post demerger.
GNX is not even in the retail market yet (cant say its where they will ever get there either) - BBP will be via Tesla doing the retailing. I still stand that BESS have a fit in scaling up in GNX's current profile - as they (once funded) provide a rapid source of cashflow without the volatility of solar.... personally I would be very surprised if the IRR was only 9%, I still feel we are at the early stage of adoption of BESS - but first movers stand to benefit most. The dilution isn't great... but I am more inclined to want it & have the BESS's installed and operating than not - personally I feel it will pay off LT
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