Don't assign causation simply because the share price dropped. The truth is, we don't know the motivation of the sellers.
With respect to FUM peaking, It's hard to make the argument that Rajiv has done something "Dumb". Remember, EM funds probably all had some exposure to Russia, especially the passive funds. His style is agnostic, which means he doesn't have a value/growth bias. The funds did in fact underperform during the middle of last year due to his underweight tech exposure. However, the Flows continued. Now the shift from tech to commodities has resulted in a material outperformance across all the funds (Excluding EM). EM of course has outperformed over the long run too.
Logic would dictate that a manager who had the foresight to ride tech all the way up and now switch to the next winning sector is probably going to attract more flows when the macro sentiment turns.
The days of being able to blindly pick stocks in either growth/value and make money are long gone. The boat is no longer lifting all tides. Good active management will be valuable across equities and fixed interest. You can't do much about the macro factors right now, but I'm confident that GQG's performance over the short and long run will be fresh in investors and institutions minds.
The share price will eventually follow the earnings, and right now the earnings have not deteriorated anywhere as much as the share price. In fact right now the earnings are likely the same as they were for last quarter. So are you getting value at the current price? Probably, but that depends on whether you can predict the future for share markets. We going up or down from here? I personally don't know, but I know that an investment of $1,000 now gets me the same earnings from GQG at about a 30% discount to what it was a few weeks ago. Seems like a solid investment to me.
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