Ann: Trading Halt, page-110

I look at it slightly differently. Firstly, if there is enough evidence to warrant the next Phase then we know that the chance of success is extremely likely (>85% if we take cancer drugs out of the success rate equation)

The overall AHI reduction doesn't matter that much to me. You may not know that Prozac is "only" 10% more effective than Placebo. That doesn't sound much but it is extremely significant. So it is a trap to look at blanket figures.

It is also interesting to note that the average person who requires anti depressants has three attempts at different drugs to get an outcome. So overall figures aren't that meaningful, it is the effect on the individual that matters and how many of them there are in the market.

In the case of IHL OSA, my view of the market is about segments and particularly unserved ones.

for example.......

1. Non cpap users are 50% of the market. They are unserved. How many of these would be positively effected? How many would not need a CPAP machine? How many individuals would have a quality of life change?

2. How many cpap users would be pushed into the "safety zone" and no longer require a machine. How many have reached a plateau even using CPAP and still at unacceptable levels - and would benefit from our drug?

This IMO is a more a market segmentation question. Research results are often bell curve like so what will be of interest to me is the potential market penetration into specific segments. It is likely with these studies that there are certain types of people who will react very positively and those who don't, like most medications in the market.

Point I am trying to make here is that focusing on just an AHI number as an average is not that useful for market potential, other than it should be at least overall positive.

Remembering the Prozac example - those numbers appear low from an absolute perspective but for those that it effects positively, it is very significant. It dominates the market but you may dismiss it if someone told you it is almost the same as placebo.

If the results indicate that we have the confidence to move forward then I think we have an absolute winner on our hands (statistically speaking)

Dominating market segments is a key marketing idea - and we know that 50% of it is unserved let alone the potential of cpap responders.