This is Mr Lincoln Augustus, first second cousin of Holymagiman.
And so we have another bright Saturday morning in Kingston, and we are all ready for breakfast. And it smells very promising indeed, with the leftover crab curry from yesterday warming up and the smell of freshly brewed coffee just working up the appetite.
And so we wait, and the waiting is made just that much less interminable by some really fine Jamaica Numba One Extra Spejil that Holymagiman has conjured up. So it is a relaxed life, all in all, with no concerns or worries whatsoever.
So it surprised me to see Uncle Tobias deep in thought calculating away on the back of an envelope and, to all intents and purposes, lost to the world. It is nothing very extraordinary to see him lost to the world with a Jamaica Numba One Extra Spejil but it was odd to see him muttering to himself while he calculated away on the back of an envelope.
Holymagiman called out to him and asked him what he was doing and he replied that he was working things out to clarify in his mind the thoughts that he was thinking.
Naturally we asked him what his thoughts were, for we had only got crab curry, ackee and saltfish, tamarind rice and freshly brewed coffee on our minds for breakfast.
And what he was thinking was interesting indeed, as it had all to do with Metgasco and nothing to do with breakfast, and his thoughts may or may not be relevant in the scheme of things, who is to tell.
He first pointed out to us that Metgasco has the best 5,930 sq km acreage of the Clarence Morton in New South Wales. One has to remember that the Clarence Morton Basin’s area is about 26,000 in total, with about 16,000 sq km in NSW and the rest in Queensland.
Metgasco has taken full control of PEL 13 and PEL 426 by buying out Molopo’s interests in these leases. So now Metgasco has 100% of PEL 16, PEL 13 ad PEL 426, and these are right smack bang in the middle of the Clarence Morton Basin.
As Uncle Tobias pointed out, it is noted on page 14 of the Managing Directors review at the AGM that Metgasco has now IDENTIFIED 21 PROSPECTS FOR CONVENTIONAL GAS IN THESE 3 LEASES, WITH A TOTAL P50 OF 1,355 BCF.
Interestingly, Uncle Tobias reminded us, in page 14 it states that 13 of these leads are in PEL 13 and PEL 426, with a total P(50) of 882 Bcf. So it appears, that Molopo sold itself very short indeed, and for that we can only blame it on the moon, for the moon has a perculiar way of bringing out the zombies.
Oh, well, there are always some losers and there are always some winners. And the world keeps going round and round, day after day, till the end of time, without care or worry.
That Managing Directors Review is quite an interesting read, as Uncle Tobias pointed out.
On 30th November, Metgasco announced that there had been a major gas discovery and that “ MINIMUM OF 32M of gas bearing sands have been identified.”
However Uncle Tobias noted on page 8 of the Managing Director’s Report that in the Gatton section alone, 49 METRES OF GAS BEARING SANDS were identified.
No information was made of the depth of the gas bearing sands in the Ripley Road sandstone formation below the Gatton sandstone, but we will have to assume that there was a column of gas bearing sands in this formation, especially as Metgasco stated that “further gas zones are likely to be present at greater depth GIVEN EVIDENCE OF GAS AT THE BASE OF THE WELL.”
So it would appear that the next report out from Metgasco may well be to announce a doubling of the amount of gas bearing sands that have been identified.
And the other important paragraph in the announcement of the gas discovery is that “the field has a current estimated area of closure of 25km². The company will review the current resource estimate for the Kingfisher field in the coming week AND EXPECTS THAT THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. “
So we are expecting two pieces of good news, hopefully a doubling of the height of the gas bearing zones and hopefully a 50% increase in the area of closure of the field. And that would make us most happy, seeing as how we have now got 57 shares in the family.
So what do we do with all this gas? Thatis a question that will need an ultimate answer, because if there is no use for the gas, it just goes up into thin air, to have a bit of a good time with the smoke of the Numba One.
Metgasco has addressed this problem in page 9 of the Managing Director’s Review. We would expect that the Richmond Valley Power station will be up and running within 2 years, and we believe that the Kingfisher field is very nicely positioned to supply the power station with the gas it needs.
The note about “Gas sales discussions” and about 2014 swaps into the Queensland markets has taken a load off the family’s mind, and we hope we get our half a share in the SPP allocation, but we believe there may be a scaleback of our allocation.
It is interesting to note in page 17 of the Managing Directors Review that part of the 2010 objective is that Metgasco has now commenced a process to identify potential partners for CSG interests in PEL 16 and that JV partners are being sought for up to 50% interest .
It would not surprise the family one little bit that negotiations have already taking place, and if that is so, then it has to be with one of the majors. That raises interesting possibilities, which could be most unwelcome at the present time.
Uncle Tobias was intrigued by the trading pattern of Metgasco this week. There was enormous activity on Monday, a bit less on Tuesday, then things settled down on Wednesday and Thursday before the volumes and the share price took off in the latter part of Friday.
This could be just the normal run of things in very abnormal times for Metgasco, but we would not be too surprised if a substantial shareholder notice is posted early next week. After all, 5% of the shares on issue, to trigger a substantial shareholder announcement, only amounts to 9,301,120 shares.
This could be the reason for the run on Friday, or perhaps fresh information on the well with increased gas levels.
But we only conjecture, and the Jamaica Numba One Extra Spejial does lead one to heady times. But breakfast finally beckons, and ahead, a glorious day for some fishing, so we have to leave you now, with the blessings of the Lord
MLA
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