Daily Price Movement / General Discussion, page-45727

I'm watching both as I want to see how many waves unfold on the oil retrace.

Presentky it's only 3 which would target well over $200 for oil but it's at a point of inflection so if 5 unfold it's heading much lower.

I will not take a position currently either way.

Gold is similar with three waves unfolded and A and C of equal length which is bullish.

I see Gold at $3000 ultimately but maybe more downside pain first

i believe Putin will price Russian Oil in Gold thereby crashing the US Dollar in retaliation for the financial sanctions.

The world will grind to a halt without Russian Oil.

The problem with any Commodities play as although they may double the US Dollar may crash at the same time.say

So if you buy 1000 barrels of oil at $110 and it goes to $220 you have made $110,000 USD dollars profit.

You are currently getting $1.30 AUD per USD that's $143,000 profit.

If the USD crashes and declines in value to say 65 cents not only is your profit eroded but also your original stake.

So say your original stake is $110,000 USD or $143.000 AUD if Oil for example goes to $220 I feel it has to be accompanied by a crash in USD

$22O oil would return $220.000 USD but only $143,000 AUD at 65 cents.

This is an extreme example but demonstrates how any commodity could double and you could make Zero profit.

For that reason.if playing Commodities I feel you also have to be short USD simultaneously.

So what has this got to do with Zip.

1. $200 oil is not just a tax on consumer at the Bowser but also all other non discretionary spending will be effected , heat , lighting, cooling, food, clothing etc.

2. Zip accounts would have been a lot worse except they included a $43 million gain on currency translation and a collapsing dollar would reverse that gain to a loss. (There are numerous ways to treat currency translation but given Zip propensity for fluffy headline numbers I am assuming ( may be wrong) they used the most advantageous method to make the accounts look better or less disastrous.

3. Such rising pressures on household budgets would lead to a dramatic fall in GMV and rising bad debt percentages.

4. Overseas nations such as Japan and China own most of the USA dollar debt and if they start selling that debt on a wholesale basis the Bond Market will collapse and yields ( interest rates) go through the roof which will be death knell for BNPL

While many were arguing with me and believing FeD and RBA rhetoric that no rate rises before 2024 I knew they would be firced into earlier action and this steady 25 basis points rises is no sense as rises will be quicker, larger and more frequent than indicated

I would ride the rally but am prepared to jump of the moving train.