Taiwan, China and sanctions., page-18

1. I would like to point out that unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has an aggreement signed in 1979 that the US will come to its defence. So they wont have any chioce unless they are willing to throw away all alliances with other countries.

Japan will likely quickly make its own nuclear arsenal. And they(USA) will have 0 influence externally.

Japan also already committed to helping Taiwan and if Japan makes its own nuclear weapons it will absolutely piss off China and make things much
much worse for the whole world.

2. Concerning iron ore. With the US being involved in the conflict it will block all imports into China. So no matter what Brazil thinks it will not to be able to sell its iron ore unless it tries to hide shipments through 3rd party countries bordering China like Pakistan. But a hugely exspensive option.

This has been done before with the British Navy effectively blocking all imports into Germany once the war started in 1939.

The most likely Situation is short term excess supply of Iron ore in the market with no where for it to go. But extremely high prices of steel as chinese exports of steel and other products cut off. So within a year the demand will increase and will be back to a lower but not end of the world iron ore price. Likely 50 to 70USD per tonne like the 1990s. FMG would be marginally profitable in the medium term.

And once the end of hostilities come it will be a boom with all the reconstruction.

Let us hope none of this ever happens.