Hi there, CS, I see you don't have me on "ignore", I'm impressed. OK, now down to business.
Urea prices.
You appear to have read the Fitch ratings report of December 2021. You would have noticed the following:
"Fitch Ratings-Moscow-08 December 2021: Fitch Ratings has increased its short-term global fertiliser price assumptions on strong short-term demand, increased feedstock prices and supply constraints that it expects to continue into early 2022. Fitch’s medium-and long-term price assumptions remain unchanged."
OK, things have changed a bit due to the current crises around the world, but I "think" it is only short term. I believe the fertiliser world in general, l will rise to the occasion and fill the void until things regain some normalcy in a few years. Then we might see a balance achieved. A little, but on a much larger scale, of something like the Adblue shortage which was going to bring the world's transport systems to a halt.
I think our best option is to hold fire until we see the "Preliminary" BFS, due out very shortly. It will be a powerful "no bullshit report", designed to attract funding. They will not want to try to pull the wool over potential financiers eyes The assumptions on urea prices will be their best estimates, although to be safe, I would expect them to be a tad conservative. I doubt that current urea prices will have much impact on the BFS.
Well, mate, for what it's worth, that's the way I see, at this stage. On the question of "who is the world's biggest Richard?" I think we are running neck and neck, what do you reckon?
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