Nearly impossible to properly value this - the market seems to look at the coal price twelve months out and work from there, so you would be looking at an index price of US$300/t and applying 75% for CRN's coal quality to get to a price of US$225/t.
Using expected sale quantities going forward and applying that price, I have them generating around A$1.1bil/pa in cash compared with a current market cap of A$3.5bil - looks cheap but I don't really know what a sensible multiple is for this operation and what the market will eventually pay for it.
One needs to keep in focus that the only two independent substantial shareholders, L1 Capital and Aust Super have both elected recently to reduce their shareholdings and the fact that for most Funds coal is a dirty word and will no longer invest in the space. So are we now relying on retail to push the price from here with the residual shareholdings from the two substantial shareholders still to be absorbed by the market?
My estimates for Q1 are attached:
View attachment 4208015
(20min delay)