My analysis and intrinsic value of TLX March 2022

I said 3.50 to 3.62 going off available shares and data. The takeaways for this stock is as follow; I put the stock at an intrinsic value of 3.10 to 3.25 but 3.50 is what the math is leading too a share at the current state.

TAKEAWAYS

• Has less than half a year of cash runaway left?
• Shares have been severely diluted over the past year.
• CHM Chimera is at a more advanced Phase 3 2023 and will release an off-shelf test kit in late 2023.
• 7-day Moving Average down another -17.6%
• 1-year Moving Average down -6.4% (AU BIOTECHS DOWN ON AVERAGE BY -2.4%)
• EPS -0.26
• Gross Margin 66.46%
• Debt/Equity Ratio is a 0.9%
• Price to Book is 609.3x
• TLX is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (609.3x) compared to the AU Biotechs industry average (-3

The present value of this stock at 4.21 a share, is overpriced. I calculate the Share Price to Fair Value is overvalued by 26.6%


POSITIVES

• Earning forecast to grow 56.63% annual earnings growth after Phase trials are complete.
• It will smash the industry rivals by 450% when operational. Estimation growth 20% (Revenue vs Market appox 40 to 43% growth beating ASX 5.3% per year.
• TLX should become profitable within the next 3 years if all goes well. I estimate future ROE (3y) should be a cool 28% beating the Industry by at least 13 to 15% (YoY)

I currently do not hold any shares for the above reasons, however, I will begin my buying cycle when it drops to 3.60 and lower. I'm sorry if I have deflated anyone's expectations but if you are patient or have bought too high I suggest selling and rebuy at the mid 3.50's or hold, and down-average your holdings. The only problem with that is your waiting time will be longer as your average share price might be sitting in the high 5's or 6's. If you are here for the long term then well and good. If you are here to make a profit then follow the above recommendations. (After you do your own research please.)

The above information is for my own research that I have done over the past 2 months. If some of my figures are diphasic it's because I have calculated them on different spreadsheets and software.