MOG 0.00% 0.5¢ moby oil & gas ltd

Ann: Trading Halt , page-11

  1. 24 Posts.
    Analysts view of valuation. FYI

    Implied valuation of Artemis prospect to MOG - Based on MEO share price trading history
    comments
    MEO share price (pre-Artemis announcement) 0.179 A$/share 6 month VWAP prior to 1st announcement of Artemis prospect (19th March 2009)
    Shares on Issue at the time 417.3 million
    MEO market capitalisation 74.7 A$million
    Net cash position 21.8 A$million Post Zeus-1 well
    MEO enterprise value 52.9 A$million

    Current share price 0.435 A$/share Closing share price as a 14th December 2009
    Shares on issue 477.2 million Post capital raising
    MEO market capitalisation 207.6 A$million
    Estimated net cash position 41.6 A$million Cash from September 2009 quarterly cash flow report + A$26m from capital raising
    Enterprise value 166.0 A$million

    Increase in MEO enterprise value 113.1 A$million Enterprise value increase in MEO that can be attributed to Artemis prospect
    Interest in Artemis well 20% Post proposed farmout
    Implied valuation of Artemis well (100%) 565.4 A$million At 100% level

    MOG interest in Artemis well 15% MOG is carried for the entire cost of the Artemis well
    Implied valuation of Artemis to MOG 84.8 A$million 15% of the 100% value for Artemis

    Value attributed to Cornea 0.0 A$million
    Value attributed to Braveheart 0.0 A$million

    Assumed cash balance post Cornea/Braveheart 0.0 A$million

    Implied MOG market capitalisation 84.8 A$million

    MOG shares on issue (post capital raising) 310.9 million

    Implied MOG market capitalisation 0.273 A$/share

    Current MOG share price 0.175 A$/share

    Movement to reach implied valuation 55.9%

    MEO Valuation Metrics
    Artemis Prospect

    Gas in Place 20 Tcf
    Recovery Factor 60%
    Recoverable Volume 12 Tcf
    Probability of Success (POS) 32%
    Risked Volume 3.84 Tcf

    Value / mcf 0.5 US$/mcf

    Risked Value 1920.0 US$million

    Exchange Rate 0.90 A$/US$

    Risked Value 2133.3 A$million

    MEO Interest 20%

    Value to MEO 426.7 A$million

    MEO Shares on Issue 477.2 million

    Value to MEO 0.89 A$/share

    MOG Interest 15%

    Value to MOG 320.0 A$million

    MOG Shares on Issue 310.9 million

    Value to MOG 1.03 A$/share

 
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