IVZ 1.49% 6.8¢ invictus energy ltd

Ann: 7-Fold increase in Permit & Sovereign Wealth Fund Agreement, page-156

  1. 1,528 Posts.
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    I took MAY in the raise and had sold out at 16.5 last week. Would have sold earlier as I posted on the MAY threads it was looking very toppy around 20c+ and I would have sold then if I had the shares available as the market cap was getting rather high for the stage they were at. Its like I was saying on the IVZ threads the other day though, most of these overshoot on the initial discovery hype and then settle right back for the long haul to development. I don't expect IVZ to be any different and I think we'll overshoot on news of a discovery too so I'll be keeping an eye on that market cap and selling when I think it's getting a bit rich.
    Hard to know short term with MAY. It was priced to perfection post discovery so it makes sense to be sold off on non-perfect news yesterday. Hopefully for those still holding the upcoming flow test exceeds expectations and the next well does as well... because they are high expectations set at this point. I think it's ok value around the 12c mark and assuming the primary net pay is overpressured and lighter oil than first thought, it could do well long term and maybe push a 10-15% recovery factor rather than the 5% usually seen with Cuban heavy oil developments... But there's another stock with a Cuba project with more upside imo and I sent my money there instead.

    Regarding your comment on 2C resources estimate for the second IVZ well. I agree. We should see a resources estimate for it pre-drill and I hope it's in the 1.5-3 Tcf range. Seems we may actually be drilling this target first from the recent commentry and Zim media. I doubt we will drill without this target being announced. They will already have these 2C figures for various targets identified on the seismic and used to short-list the best target(s). Maybe they want them verified by the third party again to give a bit more confidence to the estimate.
 
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