I'm reasonably confident it will be below the IPO price within 9-12 months. It's not worth more than 30c-40c right now, imo; covid retail boom unwinding, unsustainable ad spending with low ROI, founder selling down and the opaqueness around how merchants are getting supply of these brands. The pumpy announcements around becoming a seller on JD and the beauty products thing were pretty transparent. They need to show that the business involves a bit more than pointing a fire hose filled with cash at advertising (seriously, $2 spend for $1 increase in GP). I don't believe they currently can maintain the growth profile they need to justify the valuation while at the same time reducing marketing costs to show a pathway to sustainable profitability. That's basically the crux of it.
Why you'd value this on a revenue multiple is absolutely beyond me. They are a reseller with the (shrinking) GPM of any run of the mill retailer. Sure they might be growing quickly but it's not hitting the bottom line – gross profit doesn't even cover marketing spend. The founder has basically telegraphed he's going to dump more shares. It's hard to see a reason to buy when Mintz is selling 10s of millions of dollars worth every time he gets the chance.
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Last
$1.11 |
Change
0.050(4.74%) |
Mkt cap ! $421.2M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$1.05 | $1.14 | $1.02 | $12.36M | 11.23M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 4000 | $1.11 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$1.12 | 3763 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 4000 | 1.105 |
10 | 98169 | 1.100 |
1 | 3763 | 1.095 |
4 | 46808 | 1.090 |
4 | 47609 | 1.085 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
1.115 | 3763 | 1 |
1.120 | 3763 | 1 |
1.125 | 18374 | 2 |
1.130 | 13763 | 2 |
1.135 | 12763 | 3 |
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