THE ONLY WAY IS UP., page-2240

Hi Aqua,
This is a genuine question, have you done any work on the individual gas contracts that BPT has with various customers and if so can you publish it as its hard to work out what is really going on with these gas contracts.

I tried back in 2020 and came up with this which was just based on previous announcements and it is lacking detail.
I have tried asking BPT but due to confidentiality they were very reluctant to give or confirm anything.
What we do know is the Origin contract price was reviewed last year with a midpoint gas price quoted of around $9.34/GJ which suggests the remaining contracts are currently averaging $7.27/GJ
So the key issue is when are the remaining Gas contracts going to reflect true market pricing as clearly they currently do not.

This was my 2020 attempt at looking at the gas contracts

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 8
0			Vol(pj)/pa	Counterplay	Basis	End Date	PriceReview date	Market pricing
1	Cooper basin JV			Origin Energy	Oil Linked with downside protection	Jun-25	N/A
2	Cooper basin JV			Origin Latice GSA	Fixed Price plus CPI until repricing	Jun-30	1-Jul-23	1-Jul-22
3	Cooper basin JV Ethane		36.3	Qenos		2025	N/A	1-Jul-21
4
5	Western Flank Gas		8.6	Various		Dec-21		1-Jul-21
6
7	Victoria Otway			Origin Latice GSA	Fixed Price plus CPI until repricing	Jun-33	1-Jul-23	1-Jul-21
8	Victoria Otway			Origin Toyoto GSA			1-Jul-23	1-Jul-21
9	Victoria Otway		18.4	AGL		2021	N/A	1-Jul-22
10
11	Bas Gas		6.1	Alinta		Dec-21	N/A	1-Jul-21
12	SA Otway		0.9
13	Total BPT share		70.3

This was the Gas sales from the December 2021 Quarterly report

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6
0		PJ	$M	$/GJ		Next Rev
1	Cooper Basin	7.30
2	Victoria Otway Basin	4.30	40	9.34	Origin Contract	Jul-23
3	Kupe	3.20
4	Perth Basin	1.90
5	Western Flank	1.70
6	Bassgas	1.00
7	Other	0.30
8	Total	19.70	152	7.7
9	Origin known	4.30	40	9.34
10	Other	15.40	112	7.27
11	Total	19.70	152	7.70

Beach claim the actual Gas/Ethane price for the quarter was $7.60/GJ so pretty close to the $7.70 average.

If the remaining non Origin gas contracts are going to get price reviewed say 1st July 2022 and that's likely at least 60% of the volume then its possible we could see maybe a $1.50 to $2.00 (around an extra $150-$200M in revenue per year) jump in the averaged realised Gas/Ethane price but if there is no price review on them and they just continue as is based on unknown formula then we will not see much of an increase in the average gas price achieved until at least July 2023.
This is the unknown unless anyone else knows anything more about this.

Clearly additional Gas sales will be more market based priced but its the existing contracts that I am interested in as this could change my long term view on BPT if its proven that all these contracts will soon be on true market prices rather than old negotiated prices.