possiblity for sell off?, page-38

Moviedancer,

I know what you mean - the sp has zero support atm. Bit dissappointing - reminds me of 6 months ago when the sp was 1.5 - ESI had NOTHING except plans - they had just raised a few mill, no IP, no Tincom or AMI, no LYP site/coal, Matmor was in the nevernever. We assumed nothing would drive the sp until the IP was attained - and even then it was wishful thinking that the sp would spike. Within a couple of weeks they ann Tincom out of the blue and off the sp went. No one expected the frenzy that took place, when essentially ESI had NOTHING.

ESI have just raised a similar amount - but this time they are in a largely derisked situation - more quality staff, 80 leads, coal etc. ESI now have SOMETHING. They have the cash to ascertain whether or not the Tincom/Matmor FS's are viable.

IMO ESI is primed for another move soon. I dont believe the sp will be 3.8 come Jan - let alone July 2010. There are too many "possibilities" that could drive it.

What will be the trigger this time?

As it was pre June run - we are now guessing.

Maybe the SPV established with FS cash ?

Maybe a very bullish Hatch/Matmor ann that incorporates a definite FS start date?

Maybe a 3rd or 4th jv?

Maybe someone wants to take ESI over?

Maybe all the positive derisking ann's of late is enough for instos to buy big? - instos dont necessarily buy immediately after a good ann (especially with a microcap), they have time on their side to assimilate the recent ann's.

Maybe its a prominent director coming onboard?

Maybe its directors finally buying big?

Lack of directors holding big is imo one of the major downsides of ESI. Instos must wonder why this ingredient is missing atm. Its time directors showed some confidence to the market.

ESI has for LT holders, always been a bet on whether or not instos buy in a big way. Serious insto buying to rid the register of manipulators is the aim. The only way to accomplish that is what ESI are doing swiftly - derisking/trust building ann's systematically. Carter will/is be a good influence over time. About time he bought plenty on market though!

Interesting WHY the raising was done NOW. OK there is the working cap needs - but PRIMARILY the raising was for progressing Matmor - brave move on the face of it. Seems to me Kos is supremely confident of near term Coldry outcomes that he is prioritizing Matmor - likely because Hatch are so positive.

If you compare the June ESI with the Dec ESI's fundamentals - its hugely derisked in 6 months. I wonder where the sp will be in July 2010 - post Tincom/Matmor FS.
Yesterday Kos was very upbeat about the FS outcomes.

BTW - thanks PJ and others. Kos when am I going to get on the payroll? (btw - Ive never spoken or emailed Kos or the coy - maybe they would want to disown me)