Good News & Bad News, page-9344

Ghosts in the machine, if history is a guide, expect only 80% of nameplate comes to market. I agree with your sentiment wrt MIN supply easing the deficit, but that's still paper supply at present, but I guess the announcement would have soothed CE's ego, somewhat.

New spod production, not necessarily supply on open market, coming online over the coming 12 months

Company	Max New Spod Capacity	Downstream Integrated	In LCE, based on 7.2kt conversion ratio	Spod available on open spod/spot market	LCE for tonnes available on open spod market	Total LCE Units
PLS	~200kt	Not immediately, but will likely be allocated to POSCO JV facility	28kt	100% through to mid 2023, 0% thereafter	28kt	28kt
MIN/GFL Mt Marion	450kt	Locked up for chem conversion, with potential for 50% of that capacity to be tolled for MIN	62.5kt	0%	31.25kt	62.5kt
MIN/ALB	750kt (all 3 trains)	Most locked up for chem conversion, but assume 25% available on open spod market	78kt (75%)	188kt (25%)	26kt	104kt
CXO	180kt	Sold out under offtakes (happy to be corrected)	25kt	180kt	25kt	25kt
Sigma Lithium	240kt (happy to be corrected)	100% locked up for chem conversion	33kt	0%	0	33kt
Total	1.82 million tonnes		226,500 tonnes	568,000 tonnes	110,250 tonnes	252,500 tonnes
SENSITIVITIES
Due to commissioning and ramp up, assume only 60% of new supply hits market in coming 12 months,	1.092 million tonnes		135,900 tonnes	340,800 tonnes	66,150 tonnes	151,500 tonnes
Expect only 80% of nameplate (paper) supply comes online, “period”	1.456 million tonnes		181,200 tonnes	454,400 tonnes	88,200 tonnes	202,000 tonnes

Of course there is 2 brine projects (AKE & LAC) coming in line late this, early next year with LCE capacity of 65kt, however they will take at least 18 months to reach nameplate, so sensitivities would would be 40% of capacity over coming 12 months, and same 80% announced nameplate thereafter.

Supply was 490kt in 2021 while demand was ~505kt. Assuming annual compound demand growth of 30% for 2022 and 23 CY’s, demand for LCE would reach 657kt this year and 853kt in 23 CY. As I’m expecting most of the aforementioned supply to be felt in the market in 2023, that implies small deficit this year and 90kt LCE gap in supply in 2023.

On that last note, that leaves plenty of room for producers to expand, for which those expansions are expected to meet majority of demand over the coming decade.