I was under the impression ~$400m was about the mark. I guess that at $10.50/GJ which would match the company's $300m pa revenue statements. Even though we were $7-8/GJ at the time.
So 25yrs, capex of $500m APA and 5x $25m per well, production at 28PJ pa, $300m revenue and opex of $5.7-6/GJ (estimates from Sole) is about $400m NPV, which ok but not great imo.
But... if all that is about correct the NPV at current price of $14/GJ is about $1.2b. Quite the jump. At $20/GJ its $2.5b.
I realise know no one is making big decisions on spot but look at the other gas markets globally. Could Australian politicians be just as stupid in navigating energy policy? The longer it stays high and pushes higher, the more forecasts have change to accommodate. And Judith gets big quick. Wild times ahead.
180 were always going to smash it out first chance so ok all done, lets get going on the big bucks.
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