LPD 0.00% 0.3¢ lepidico ltd

LPD Valuation, page-23

  1. 864 Posts.
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    Your review here Post #: 60731915 and here Post #: 60737701 on the value of LPD is interesting and welcome - far better than the recent comments about the share price, the performance of other companies, or personal attacks and bullying of other posters. Your comments seem to have more to do with the value of LPD, rather than its share price, so I prefer to respond in this thread.

    1. Other countries have successfully exported concentrate without being batteries producers (Australia comes to mind), so I don't think that caution needs to apply to Namibia. There's not a lot LPD can do about the resource. It is where it is. It is being moved (as concentrate) to a "better" location.

    2. The exploration tenement is 1000 km2, of which 68 km2 is the existing mine. The pegmatite outcrop is substantial through the tenement, and a drilling campaign will last for several years to identify the potential. The current resource is certainly sufficient for the P1P, but lepidolite (and other Li rich micas) in pegmatites are available from other locations around the world. Karibib is important for initial revenue flow, but growth (eg P2P) can also be fed from other sources.

    3. The BoD has carefully examined the business case for UAE (including concentrate shipping costs), and JW mentioned that KIZAD was a compelling location. Process inputs (eg H2SO4) are also a limitation at Walvis Bay, but the company is keeping its options open for P2P (EU, US, Walvis Bay), which could number more than one. (I draw the distinction here between P1P and P2P. My distinction is based on production capacity, not which plant was built first.)

    4. China is a major producer of batteries, but not a monopolist (LG Chem, Mitsubisihi, Samsung are others). Europe is also establishing its own facilities (eg NorthVolt), and UAE lithium may well end up in Europe. It's not too difficult to imagine CHCsO2 / Rb2SO4 in US, LiOH•H2O in EU, with SOP, SiO2 and CaSO4•2H2O remaining in UAE/ME.

    5. As for the product mix, 62% of revenue is from lithium (DFS). I see the mix of by-products as more of an advantage than a disadvantage, offering revenue stability in the event of price changes for one product. LPD is positioned as an "alkali metals specialist chemical company", rather than as a lithium company, with some minor by-products. The diversity it important.

    6. The discussion on capital intensity is difficult because we can only refer to an aging DFS. The design has changed, and we need to see the control estimates from the FEED work undertaken by Lycopodium. The improvements to the plant design will increase capex, but the use of buffer tanks to facilitate circuit maintenance without stopping continuous production will deliver significant process benefits. I expect that nameplate production capacity will increase.
 
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