big falls today, page-8

here is an opinion of morgan stanley re copper and PNA of 22/12/2009, MS covered other copper stox as well, this is the PNA thread. pls DYOR...thx...a courtesy post only

Copper - End of Year Numbers Management
Some changes to earnings - As we approach the end of 2009 we look in to 2010 and beyond for the copper producers and revisit some of our production and costs estimates.
Concerned on copper - Copper has reached new cycle heights of $3.20/lb and remains most people's preferred pick of the base metal complex for 2010 and beyond. Whilst we continue to like the longer-term outlook for copper, we are starting to believe that the copper price may have rallied too hard, too soon and may disappoint in early 2010 (see our report Contrarian Copper Call?, 14 Dec 2009). Our base case forecast for 2010 remains $2.91/lb.

PanAust - still the preferred pick - Operational performance Phu Kham is improving lifting production and reducing costs. The real upside in PNA remains around the development of the Ban Houayxai deposit as well as a growing portfolio of exploration projects such as Ban Phonxai and Phonsavan. PNA is unique amongst the Australian copper names in having some future organic growth projects. PNA remains the cheapest of the Aussie copper names and we keep our BUY/ High Risk, reflecting that future optionality as well as the relative value in the stock.