@grafiksammler - Dunke Kumpel , und Frohe Ostern to you as well .....
When it comes to share price prediction contests , I obviously make my own up , they are normally with myself , and make and formulate them around ' real ' research and analysis ......and not just blind guess work.
And on that note - I have a whole range of new information and analysis items which I'll just simply kick off this Beautiful Easter Sunday with just these two following items first.
We were recently talking about the ' new ' Top 20 which was published on Sayona's website which included the forthcoming nearer term OD's which expire on 23rd July 2022 .
So I came up with this idea or more theory of why they might have decided to include the OD's and NOT the OC's .
So apart from the fact that the more broadly held OC's expire later than these July 2022 OD's , the OD's are in fact held very tightly among Management and the BOD as well as one of our previous longstanding Top No.1 holder in Terrjoy Pty Ltd who has been on the register almost as far back as several of the founding shareholders from the Diamonex days as well as the Lake Exploration Pty Ltd days .....
So I find it interesting that Guy Laliberte who is the N0. 3 Top shareholder of the 3.0 cent OD's with his holding balance of 6,459,949......
Now I realize that Guy is in fact a Director of Sayona Quebec Inc , and that there no legal requirement per se for him or his movement to ever be included in the ASX parent Organisation's listing rules requirements of a Director's Change of Notice Appendix 3 Y
However were we do get the opportunity to put together the pieces is when we see those ' Application for Quotation ' notices which are issued when special ' options ' or identifiable options balances get exercised. And with this sort of information we can then extrapolate what it might all mean in the context of various timings and outcomes.
So with Guy , as I have stated already , we know that he has a current balance of 6,459.949 3.0 cent options requiring conversion by 23rd July 2022 or sooner.
We also know that these were issued when he took up his entitlement of 12,919,897 shares in the August 2019 .0086 cent capital raising where he received the 1 ' Free ' option for every 2 shares subscribed.
We also know that he had and had already converted his 2,000,000 3.0 cent SYAAA shares in 2019 , and which he exercised already in 2021 ( 2 years after grant date. )
So my interest here then is why would he move to convert his additional 2,000,000 SYAAA unlisted directors options which had a 3 year exercise window out to the vesting date of 29th September 2022 .....or in fact just around the time if you like of the Quebec General Elections ( not that it has anything to do with that -but equally interesting ).
So why would Guy elect to convert these 2,000,000 now when the difference is really only $113,798 and he still potentially holds another 12,919,897 shares. I mean he could have sold 575,000 shares at 34 cents to gain 2,000,000 at 4.0 cents.
In any case , its also interesting to see how Sayona and their accountants and remuneration policies had established these options in the first place with particular emphasis shown to the 4.0 series which show that around 34.0 cent was the calculated ' implied value ' at the time.
So I find all this timing and ' show & tell ' if you like with the revised TOP 20 when it wasn't even required all very interesting. Especially since he has gone for the conversion of these 4.0 cents options ahead of his 3.0 cent OD's.
And I guess this means that he will definitely be proceeding with the conversion of his OD's as well. And Lynch also has his 2,000,000 4.0 cent SYAAA's in play as well.
In any case , what it does show is with respects to Guy , is that if he still has his 12,919,897 original capital raise shares PLUS his now converted additional 2,000,000 SYAAA's .....and then you add the 6,459,949 OD's - All of a sudden we are talking a balance for Guy of 21,379,846 which would just about put him in Sayona's Top 20 in 20th position. Or at least with only 4 million million more , he may certainly be in there with a balance of over 25 million shares.
O.K so that's item ONE.
My second point here to make which hasn't been brought up yet is the fact that Easter Monday is NOT a public holiday in Ontario or in the USA .....and given that these are where the OTC and TSXV live ( ie Toronto ) , the Market will be open for trade tomorrow so We will actually get a lead and a look into what and how Markets will be behaving ahead of our ASX index opening on Tuesday morning.
And I suppose this is something that T+2 holders who bought on Easter Thursday will be keenly be awaiting when their Settlement comes in on effectively T+3 on Tuesday.
I have some other information and analysis which I have got , but I will wait to deliver it after I have put the finishing details to it - hopefully sometime next week if I'm not admitted to hospital immediately and ' kaputz ' by then.....
(20min delay)