what are the chances of a single hole success, page-4

Sydney

No disrespect but it is clear that you do not understand oil and gas drilling. Success rate in established fields where much is known about the geology and field structure is higher. Wild cat wells (that means drilling in an area that has not been drilled before where little or nothing is known about the feild structure from previous drilling campaigns) is very low. Below article provides some indication and this is in the US which is better explored than Senegal:

WILDCAT SUCCESS RATIO FOR OIL WELLS

The wildcat success rate within the context of this article is the percentage of wildcat wells drilled that successfully find new oil fields, regardless of field size. The average success rate for the U.S. from 1977 to 1996 is estimated at 18%, Table 2. In other words, it is expected that, on average, for every five wildcat wells drilled between 1977 and 1996, one will discover a new oil field.

However, the rate varies significantly across various producing regions and with time. For example, the average success rate for the 1977-1996 period among producing states or areas varies between a high of 30% in New Mexico and a low of less than 2% offshore California. Offshore Texas and offshore Louisiana also had success rates of only 9.9% and 5.0%, respectively.

Sydney, drilling rig contracts are complex and every company has extension rights. Just because you sign up for a rig doesnt mean it will come on time as the current contract it is on can easily be extended. This can only be avoided with "rig sharing" or "rig loan" type agreements between companies....Shell have rigs in west africa on contract now but very unlikely they will lend them out for anyone wanting to drill this. If they get a farm in partner with rigs in west africa then they may drill this in late 2010 at best. If not then definitely 2011. The brokers do know what they are talking about for this part at least....anyone with experience of any kind in oil and gas will tell you that it takes time to get a bit in the ground and turning.

Apologies to those that dont want to accept reality. Please note that I do hold FAR and quite a lot too.