Ann: Quarterly Activities Report, page-5

My previous post earlier today did not age well! The learned members of this forum stated that YAL mostly sells 5500 coal and not 6000 which whc mostly sells. I have updated my estimated earnings per quarter for the 5 qtrs to see how the current quarter compares with others. I have updated non operational costs for FY22 to be $650m in line with guidance. The qtr profits for FY21 do not tie back 100% to full year since there are other minor revenues and costs which I do not see as material. So my estimate EPS for Q1 FY22 is 49c compared with 51c for Q4 F21. Note the EPS for full year FY21 was 60c. I have estimate for half year and full year based on guidance. Seems like FY guidance production (lowest point) and highest cost with avg price of $258 gives EPS of $2.34. I aslo did a sensitivity at $200 average price for FY22. These are just estimates (clearly).

1			FY21	Q1 21	Q2 21	Q3 21	Q4 21	Q1 22	H1 FY22 estimate	F22 Forecast	F22 Forecast 0
2	Revenue	5404	756.8	868.6	1612	2069.1	2012.4	4351.6	9030	7000
3	Realised Price	141	88	101	155	209	258	258	258	200
4	Cost	2874	610.6	627.8	800.8	782.1	678.6	1580.7	3045	3045
5	Ebidta	2530	146	241	811	1,287	1,334	2,771	5,985	3,955
6	Shares	1320	1320	1320	1320	1320	1320	1320	1320	1320
7	EPS	0.60	-0.11	-0.06	0.25	0.51	0.50	1.05	2.34	1.24
8
9	Profit before tax	1104	-210	-116	455	931	914	1,931	4,305	2,275
10	Tax	312.432	-60	-33	129	263	259	546	1,218	644
11	NPAT	791.568	-151	-83	326	667	655	1,384	3,087	1,631
12
13	Amort	830	207.5	207.5	207.5	207.5	207.5	415	830	830
14	Finance	286	71.5	71.5	71.5	71.5	50.05	100.1	200.2	200.2
15	Non Operating	310	77.5	77.5	77.5	77.5	162.5	325	650	650
16	Tax	28.30%	28.30%	28.30%	28.30%	28.30%	28.30%	28.30%	28.30%	28.30%
17
18	Sales volume	37.5	8.6	8.6	10.4	9.9	7.8	16.87	35	35
19	Average Price	141	88	101	155	209	258	258	258	200
20	Cost	66	60	62	66	68	76	76	76	76
21	Royalties	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11