are property bears an edangered species ?, page-61

Some very spirited discussion on this subject...

I wonder why some seem almost infatuated with the need to influence the views of others...lol...a cynic might even suggest we have a group intent on seeing the thoughts of those considering an investment in the share markets.

I have a simple question for the apparent "end of the world, property will bust" brigade...

How much did it cost to build a 20sq home this time last year...and how much today?

More importantly, how much will the same home cost to build this time next year...and the next?

It is clear we are facing an unusually high inflationary period ahead, at many levels, even if as a means to retire the significant levels of debt the world has adopted as part of their collective "stimulus" regime.

Regardless of the reason...it is coming..the path has already been laid.

Whilst underlying inflation may show just 3, 4, 5% or so, much of this is currently being distorted by falls over many areas, mostly on the back of the wider downturn. So, whilst inflation may still seem under control, even normal to some, in actual fact it is being equated from significant moves, both up and down, at different ends of the economic spectrum.

Property, in my view, is rising significantly more than collective statistics reveal.

It makes sense then, that if a house costs 10% more to build next year...and potentially much more than that...then some expectation of an increase will be bought forward.

Add to this a rise of some 30% plus in the share market this year and a corresponding sideways trading range for the last 5 months or so, and we have all the evidence weneed that money has been taken out of the market in the latter half of this year.

Some of this money will find its way to property, further adding to price increases...tis adds more weight to the likelihodd of an unusually high buyer interest in the second half of 2009. When combined with a relatively quiet sellers market, we have yet another price driver before us.

Interestingly, property in my area has infact increased by about $100,000 in the last 6 months alone, but I accept it may not have increased by this much everywhere.

Cheers!