why complicate housing crash discussion

I don't know so many get into endless debates about the sustainablility and justification of current house prices vs false fundamantals vs employment vs income vs demographics vs location vs populaton / immigration vs perceived shortages vs economics vs investment options vs why Joe Blow did well on properties in the last 5 years.

I joined this forum to make an declaration (statement) that 2010 is as they say, "It's All Over Red Rover". I am not telling folks to wait forever for house prices to drop. (I TIMED MY ENTRY INTO THIS FORUM). I am not speculating, guessing, hoping, wishing or longing for a price crash. I know ! (AND MANY IN THE REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY ARE PREPARING FOR IT).

I don't doubt for a moment property is a sound investment vehicle (only at the right time of the asset cycle - in other words at the trough of the impending crash).

The simple fact is Australia has a massive prolonged housing bubble that was already on a downward correction trajectory by mid-late 2008 (RBA & Rudd panicked and gave the dying junkie a massive hit). The emergency RBA rates (an absolute policy disaster in hindsight Mr Stevens must be thinking) and the FHOG artifically fuelled and inflated the bubble to the point where every SMART person now has their fingers in their ears.

I am not intersted in the past. I only care about the future. And the future is literally a few months away. As I said by March, all the tell-tale signs are there for a crash to occur in 2010/11 that will take prices down (I conservatively predict 40% nationally and MORE in many areas especailly in the lower end and the high end of the market).

In mid 2008 before Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers came to town, I predicted the carnage and the ASX hitting a "3" first digit. I was ridiculed with Yawn Yawn Yawn....those people ended up long faces and massive losses.

Unfortunately housing busts takes many years to recover if at all to previous peaks (unlike share markets). Most retail share punters don't have huge positions. In property speculation, we deal with hundreds of thousands to millions of largely borrowed money being at stake. If it goes wrong, KISS YOUR LIFE GOODBYE.

Perhaps some of you may want to express your gratitude for my sound advice and thank me in person later on in the year.

By then, we'll work something out.