worth a read, page-17

The difference here is Exploratory Wells
Versus Development Wells

Once you have made your discovery with your exploratory well, you will need a lot more development wells.
Development wells are usually not dry.

So when you look at the figures of All wells it is a mix of both exploratory and development wells.

VIL is drilling an exploratory well, yes we are drilling in a known area, but it is not known whether this prospect will be productive or not. So VIL is in Category 2..
or 49% of the hole not being dry.

Then we have to ask will it be commercial, and we probably need to chop off another 20%.

So in all likely hood the chances of this hole being commercial are typically around 30%, and only the top 10% being a huge commercial success.

As for the gas in the upper formations, it may or may not mean much.
They could be drilling through a known shale formation.
These formations can be very wide spread and will produce pretty impressive gas shows, but in many cases are not economic.

As for 3D seismic, in some areas it can be extremely accurate. 3D seismic with AVO in the sands of south texas will show up gas with almost 100% accuracy. It wont necessarily show how thick the gas is or whether the gas is CO2 or H2S, but it will show up gas.

Realistically VIL is a 30% chance of being a 4+ bagger
20% chance of being a 10+ Bagger.
Better odds on VIL than the casino. So still worth a look