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11:12
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Originally posted by Darkstone:
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Models are busted at the moment. It should have reversed back up already, and it should definitely be reversing up today - given the candle patterns. The channels broke again yesterday, although we are now in the major channel again (just). I am guestimating a low of 1096'ish for the day and a high of 1186, but I doubt it will get there unless we are starting a reversal. (i actually have a second low estimate of 1062, for today but I think that is just too nuts to believe. My problem ATM is that it has ignored all the reversal markers for the last couple of days, so I really feel like I am guessing ATM. The US has been an annoyingly "right" daily indicator, except that we have done even worse than the prediction on some days (like yesterday). Simple fact is that it should already have started back up, but it hasn't which suggests to me that either we are getting the TA wrong or FA is overriding it. I suspect the China lockdowns + US panic are feeding our prices. Normally by now we would have started countering the US panic, but I think we are getting the down signal each day from the US overnight which is then being augmented by the China mess each day. In fact AKE should not be being hit by China, but I don't think the Oz market is sufficiently well informed to be able to distinguish the buying countries of each Li supplier. So US says "no" and Oz says "that's right cuz China", and the funds are going "cool, lets keep shorting".
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Dipped below the .5 fib at $11.42
