Good analysis.
Cost curve support is the key to long term profitability.
At US$315/t refining costs and US$370/t cost curve support, that's US$55/t margin. From 2021 annual report, margin of US$85/t gave EPS (after tax) of US$0.065 per share. So $55/t margin would mean around US$0.042 EPS = AUD $0.059 per share franked = AUD $0.085 gross. Share price at AUD $1.70 implies a gross yield of around 5%.
Given uncertainty around Russian alumina imports, current price is a "hold" for me, looking for $1.60 before increasing position again.
DYOR, GLTAH etc.
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