MAY 0.00% 3.2¢ melbana energy limited

Ann: Preparations underway for start of Zapato-1 exploration well, page-116

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  1. 1,905 Posts.
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    I can see why you might feel like that.

    From my perspective I do not think a company would want to tank its own SP. They just did a CR at 12c. Partakers in that who sold into the last lot of news are cheering but in some respects they did not make the massive margins the hype and potential suggested at the time. I reckon this can make people weary. The company I believe will absolutely need to do another CR in due course as I cannot see how they can finish drilling, flow test etc, and assuming the results are hunky dory, go to full production on what cash they have left. If I am right, then they need all of the trust and credibility they can get to do another CR on decent terms. Sabotaging the SP below the recent CR price so soon would be counterintuituive to maintaing credibility for raising funds again when needed. I accept I could be wrong.

    I dont even reckon the SP was manipulated down today at all. I reckon what everyone is seeing is the market behaving like a petulant child, having a tantrum because they could not get what those with a Masters in Pumpology were suggesting was about to unfold.

    There has been a relentless offloading of shares for weeks now. It did not happen overnight, but day in day out before everyones eyes. Every last investor/ trader had ample opportunity to address their risk levels. The warning signs were arguably there at least for shorter term investors. I also accept there was a good case for holding and was absolutely tempted myself to reinstate my full exposure after de-risking at 14.5 c. Those that were offloading probably had not finished by the time this mornings announcement was made. They might hopefully be done now. Those that held and are now miffed or in a world of hurt because of their individual circumstance can't necessarily blame the company.

    While I am at it I do not believe for a second that 'big boys' are into the company. Watching yes but actively investing? No. Institutional investors/ funds etc typically start a sustained buy up when the resource has been proven as economically lucrative and the company is on a derisked trajectory to actually handing oil over for cash in the nearer term. There absolutely would however be professional traders having a crack. Its nothing for them to buy up +10 million shares or more and wash them out over a few days or weeks for a modest (or sometimes large) margin. These traders rarely, if ever have a lsting determinative effect on the overall SP once the fundamentals come home to roost. I wish you and all holders the absolute best, I still have a small holding and will likely buy up again when I can see the SP is going to safely get on with it. Cheers



 
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