HLF Chart, page-202

Hi Tep,

this is the first time I have heard (read) you being a bit cautious:

"...downtrend may have further to go / unless we see unexpected positive news / likely need to be another consolidation period of sideways ..."

HLF had a monster 3rd quarter, but I guess consensus is for the 4C tomorrow is more around 16m revenue to bring it up for the FY to 61m. I would expect a net cash loss from operating activities for the quarter. One has to keep in mind that cost incurred would have been high due to the transformational activities. Finance management would undoubtedly have tried to push expenses into the April to June quarter, i.e. current quarter to smooth out the financial burden. Keeping this in mind, the 1st quarter 2023 would be burdened. To keep on growing sales I would expect around 16 to 17m product manufacturing and operating costs.

So, I think you are right with your statement that I took the liberty to highlight.

Tomorrow will also be an interesting day in the sense of how they will consolidate, combine and separate data.

You point out the "lack of visibility of THM". I agree, but this is self-inflicted. Corporate communication does not go beyond the barest minimum. If they have good news, let the market know ... and I mean more meaningful announcements like Foodstuffs (equates to AUD 1m per quarter).

You mention the 'stale' holders. I would argue that management created more sets of unhappy holders:

1) the set of investors who took the stake from Bergen at 10c (how brilliant for them!)
2) the participants in the CR at 6.8c (now nearly 10% under water)

So there is some good will to be made up. I also ask myself whether the people who managed the holders into this situation are also the ones who can manage out of it.

Anyway, good luck to all holders. Tomorrow will be a day of 'unpacking' the reports ... and I am looking forward to your opinions.